Britain’s government is collapsing, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s possible resignation tomorrow is likely just the beginning. Starmer was already in trouble before Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, won a by-election on Thursday that cleared his path to becoming Starmer’s replacement. Also damaging to Starmer were Labour defeats in May elections when the party lost more than 1,300 council seats while Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK party gained more than 1,350. Reform now leads national polls at around 27%, with Labour and the Conservatives tied at around 19%. Starmer’s net approval has fallen to roughly minus 44, among the worst ever recorded for a sitting prime minister at this stage. Many blame various scandals, such as Starmer’s appointment of a friend of the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein as ambassador to Washington. But if Starmer and his agenda were popular, then voters and the press would not have made so much of such mistakes.
Across Europe, establishment parties are losing power to insurgents who reject their anti-Western agendas and values. Beatrix Von Storch, a member of the German parliament representing the libertarian conservative populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), told Public, “Regarding [the resignation of Starmer], it is a sign of the decline of the establishment parties, which are failing to solve the problems of the day. Keir Starmer is the first to resign under pressure from the new anti-migration movement in Western Europe. Soon [German Chancellor Friederich] Merz could follow.”
For the first time, national-populist parties lead the polls in Europe’s four largest economies. In Germany, the AfD leads national surveys at around 28%, ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) polls first, and a November survey projected her deputy Jordan Bardella to win the 2027 presidential runoff against any opponent. In Austria, Herbert Kickl’s Freedom Party won the 2024 election with 29%, its strongest result since the Second World War. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni governs. France elects a president in April 2027, while Germany and Britain are not due to vote until 2029.
The “cordon sanitaire” or firewall by which mainstream parties refused to govern alongside the far right is rapidly weakening. At the European Parliament, the center-right has repeatedly passed measures on migration and climate with votes from the populist-right, thus eroding the firewall's power. “There are already rumors that Merz will be replaced by his party,” Von Storch said, “after regional elections in September.”
