Many scientists and members of the public believe “we are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster” and that “much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled.” The UN Secretary General says climate change is a “time bomb” ticking toward detonation. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, warns that six of nine “planetary boundaries” have been transgressed and that humanity is approaching “irreversible tipping points.” The World Economic Forum reports that climate change may cause an additional 14.5 million deaths by 2050, citing research suggesting one billion deaths are possible by 2100 if warming exceeds two degrees Celsius. The public has received the message. A study of 10,000 people in 10 nations found that 56 percent said “humanity is doomed” and nearly half said climate change had negatively impacted their daily life.”
And yet the apocalypse described in these warnings bears little resemblance to the one revealed by the data. In 2024, approximately 16,753 people died from natural disasters globally, well below the twenty-year average of 65,566, continuing a long-term decline of roughly 90 percent over the past century. U.S. crop yields set records in 2024. Rockström’s planetary boundaries lack any objective biophysical threshold and instead reflect subjective political judgments about how much of nature humans should use. A NASA-funded study found that between 25 and 50 percent of the world’s vegetated area has grown greener over the past four decades, with CO2 fertilization accounting for approximately 70 percent of the greening. Global warming projections have fallen from 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius in 2015 to 2.6 degrees.
